Game Preview
The New Orleans Saints head to South Florida to face the Miami Dolphins in a late-season tilt with playoff positioning on the line. Quarterbacks Tua Tagovailoa and Tyler Shough bring contrasting trajectories, and both offenses must adapt to missing stars. With light rain and steady winds in the forecast at Hard Rock Stadium, execution and ball security loom large. Miami comes off a bye, while New Orleans tries to rebound after a tough home loss.
Game Information
| Date | Sunday, November 30, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 PM EST |
| Location | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL |
| Surface | Grass |
| Roof | Outdoor |
| Weather | Light rain, 76–79°F, winds ~13 mph |
Injury Report
Miami Dolphins Injuries
- Out: Jason Maitre (CB), Jordan Colbert (S), Andrew Meyer (OL), Storm Duck (CB), Jalin Conyers (TE), Liam Eichenberg (OL), Obinna Eze (OL), Kader Kohou (CB), JuJu Brents (CB), James Daniels (G), Jason Sanders (K), Artie Burns (CB), Germain Ifedi (G), Tyreek Hill (WR), Alexander Mattison (RB), Kendall Sheffield (CB), Yodny Cajuste (OT)
- Questionable: Benito Jones (DT), Rasul Douglas (CB)
New Orleans Saints Injuries
- Out: Erik McCoy (G), Landon Young (OT), Julian Blackmon (S), Alvin Kamara (RB), Will Clapp (C), Trey Palmer (WR), Ja’Lynn Polk (WR), Nick Saldiveri (OL), Kendre Miller (RB), Hunter Dekkers (QB), Vernon Broughton (DT), Mason Pline (TE), Bub Means (WR)
- Questionable: Chris Olave (WR)
Quarterback Matchup
Tyler Shough (New Orleans Saints)
Over his last three, Shough has averaged 233.7 passing yards with a 67.5% completion rate and a strong 7.81 yards per attempt. He’s produced 1.0 passing TD and 0.67 INTs per game while taking 2.67 sacks. The efficiency is encouraging, especially the YPA and accuracy, but protection has been spotty and his 3:2 TD:INT equivalent across that stretch is merely solid. With Alvin Kamara out and multiple receivers sidelined, Shough’s margin for error narrows; quick rhythm throws and selective shots will be key. In wet, breezy conditions, limiting negative plays and leaning on play-action could keep the chains moving.
Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins)
In his last three, Tagovailoa has averaged 201.7 passing yards, a 67.98% completion rate, and 7.77 yards per attempt. The efficiency per throw remains respectable, but the scoring has dipped (0.67 TD to 1.0 INT per game) and he’s taken 1.67 sacks on average. With Tyreek Hill out, Miami’s explosive element is diminished, placing more emphasis on timing routes and the run game. The bye should help recalibrate protections and script early answers, but in rain and 13 mph winds, the passing ceiling likely compresses. Expect Miami to feature motion and RPOs to manufacture easy yards for Jaylen Waddle and the backs.
Edge: Statistically, the recent form is nearly even on a per-throw basis, but Tagovailoa’s experience and scheme familiarity at home offer a slight practical edge. The absence of Tyreek Hill tightens Miami’s ceiling, keeping the QB matchup closer than the moneyline implies.
Why New Orleans Saints Covers
The number (+5.5) bakes in a sizeable Miami advantage, but several factors point to a one-score game. Weather should mute explosives and favor defense, and Miami is without Tyreek Hill, reducing its quick-strike threat. New Orleans’ defense has held firm in the red zone and can generate pressure with Cameron Jordan and Chase Young, helping to keep Miami’s passing on schedule rather than vertical. On offense, Tyler Shough’s 7.81 YPA and 67.5% completion over his last three suggest the Saints can sustain drives with a shorter, controlled plan, even with Alvin Kamara out. If Chris Olave suits up, spacing improves; if not, New Orleans can lean on play-action and the ground game to shorten the contest. With rain and wind in play, every possession gains value—an environment where taking +5.5 can be enough.
Why Miami Dolphins Covers
Miami has the rest edge off a bye and plays at home, both strong situational signals. Even without Tyreek Hill, the offense can flow through De’Von Achane and motion-driven touches for Jaylen Waddle, while Darren Waller provides a middle-of-field outlet. The Saints are depleted offensively: Kamara is out, multiple receivers are out, and Chris Olave is questionable—making sustained scoring tougher in suboptimal weather. Defensively, the Dolphins can disrupt with Bradley Chubb, Matthew Judon, and Zach Sieler, forcing Tyler Shough into third-and-long where mistakes rise. Miami’s recent trend has tilted Under, but their paths to margin include a run-game surge and scripted drives post-bye. If they win the turnover battle and finish in the red zone, the -5.5 becomes reachable.
The Pick
New Orleans Saints vs. Miami Dolphins — Total — Under 42.5 (-115)
