Game Preview
Two AFC contenders collide on the river as the Buffalo Bills visit the Pittsburgh Steelers in a late-window showcase with postseason positioning on the line. It’s a marquee quarterback duel: Josh Allen’s dynamism versus Aaron Rodgers’ precision in tricky late-November conditions. Pittsburgh’s edge tandem looms large against a banged-up Buffalo offensive line, while the Bills counter with playmaking at tight end and a defense that still flashes. With rain and wind in the forecast, situational execution and turnovers could swing a tight one at Acrisure Stadium.
Game Information
| Date | Sunday, November 30, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 4:25 PM EST |
| Location | Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Surface | Grass |
| Roof | Outdoor |
| Weather | Light Rain, 43°F, wind 15 mph (wind chill ~35°F) |
Injury Report
Pittsburgh Steelers Injuries
- Out: Max Scharping (G), Donald Parham Jr. (TE), Miles Killebrew (S), Dean Lowry (DT), DeShon Elliott (S), Daniel Ekuale (DT, suspension), Isaiahh Loudermilk (DT), Skylar Thompson (QB), Jacob Slade (DT), Cory Trice Jr. (CB), Broderick Jones (OT), Donte Kent (CB), Derrick Harmon (DT)
- Questionable: None reported
Buffalo Bills Injuries
- Out: Dion Dawkins (OT), Spencer Brown (OT), Wande Owens (S), Dorian Strong (CB), DeWayne Carter (DT), Landon Jackson (DE), Terrel Bernard (LB), Damar Hamlin (S), Tyler Bass (K), Michael Hoecht (DE), Ed Oliver (DT), Taylor Rapp (S), Mecole Hardman (WR), Curtis Samuel (WR)
- Questionable: Joshua Palmer (WR, ankle)
Quarterback Matchup
Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills)
Over his last three games, Josh Allen has been productive and volatile. He’s averaged 292 passing yards on 34.7 attempts with a strong 8.55 yards per attempt and 67.97% completion rate. The trade-off has been ball security: 1.67 TDs to 1.67 INTs per game with 2.0 turnovers on average and 3.67 sacks taken. His legs remain a weekly lever, adding 30.3 rushing yards and 1 rushing TD across the span, which is especially valuable in wind and rain. With both starting tackles out, Allen’s pocket will be noisy; creating on schedule and selectively using his mobility will be crucial to avoid negative plays against Pittsburgh’s edge rush.
Aaron Rodgers (Pittsburgh Steelers)
Aaron Rodgers’ recent sample shows a conservative profile. Over his last three, he’s averaged 160 passing yards on 27 attempts with 6.24 YPA and a 61.01% completion rate. The efficiency isn’t splashy, but the mistakes have been limited: 1.0 TD to 0.67 INTs per game and just 2.33 sacks taken on average. He adds little on the ground (2.67 rushing yards), placing a premium on timing and protection. In inclement weather, Rodgers’ decision-making and intermediate timing routes to Pat Freiermuth and Roman Wilson become pivotal, especially if the run game can keep Buffalo’s front honest without Ed Oliver in the middle.
Edge: Allen’s recent YPA (8.55) and dual-threat output give the Bills the higher ceiling, but Pittsburgh’s pass rush and the weather should compress that gap. If Rodgers stays clean and mistake-free, the quarterback duel plays closer to even than the raw numbers suggest.
Why Buffalo Bills Covers
Buffalo has the best player on the field in Josh Allen, and his recent 8.55 YPA with a 67.97% completion rate points to efficient chunk plays if protection holds. The Bills can stress matchups with Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox in two-tight end looks, mitigating edge pressure with quick-game and play-action. Defensively, Buffalo still fields impact talent on the edges and at linebacker, with Matt Milano and Taron Johnson capable of disrupting Pittsburgh’s short-and-intermediate rhythm. If the Bills control early down efficiency and flip the field with their punting and coverage units, they can force the Steelers out of balance. A modest lead would let Allen’s designed runs and scrambles close the door, even in wet, windy conditions.
Why Pittsburgh Steelers Covers
This matchup tilts toward the Steelers’ strengths in the elements. With Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown both out, T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith have a prime runway to impact downs and create negative plays. On the back end, a veteran corner trio of Jalen Ramsey, Darius Slay, and Joey Porter Jr. can clamp windows, especially with Joshua Palmer questionable and Curtis Samuel/Mecole Hardman out. The weather (light rain, 15 mph wind) favors Pittsburgh’s home comfort and a ground-led script with Jaylen Warren, complemented by play-action to Pat Freiermuth. Aaron Rodgers’ recent low turnover rate (0.67 INTs per game) meshes with a field-position game. If Pittsburgh sustains drives and finishes in the red zone, the defense and conditions can carry the final minutes.
The Pick
Pittsburgh Steelers ML (+140)
