NBA: San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves (2025-11-30)

Game Preview

The Minnesota Timberwolves welcome the San Antonio Spurs in a matchup that looks very different with Victor Wembanyama sidelined. Minnesota has been scoring efficiently and playing at a controlled but solid pace, while San Antonio leans heavily on perimeter shooting to keep up offensively. With the Spurs adjusting to life without their franchise cornerstone, the Timberwolves have a prime opportunity to protect home court. This game will test San Antonio’s depth and Minnesota’s ability to capitalize on a clear talent and health advantage.

Game Information

Injury Report

Minnesota Timberwolves Injuries

• Out: None reported in the provided data
• Doubtful: None reported
• Questionable: None reported

San Antonio Spurs Injuries

• Out: Victor Wembanyama (critical impact, WU_Drop 9.62); Stephon Castle (minimal impact, WU_Drop -4.40)
• Doubtful: None reported
• Questionable: None reported

Player Impact Summary: Minnesota shows a TotalWUDropoff of 0 with no critical injuries, indicating a fully intact rotation. San Antonio carries a TotalWUDropoff of 5.22 and a BettingImpact of 5.2, almost entirely driven by Victor Wembanyama’s absence, which is labeled as CRITICAL. This significantly lowers the Spurs’ ceiling on both ends and materially affects the spread.

Pace & Efficiency Matchup

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs’ recent offensive profile is quietly strong, with an ORtg_LastN of 121.71 and a TS_LastN of 60.12, suggesting high-level scoring efficiency over their last six games. Their eFG_LastN of 55.35 is firmly in the “good” tier, and they are taking threes at a high clip with a ThreePointRate_LastN of 0.426 and 3PA_LastN of 38.17 while hitting about 14.17 per game. Turnovers are well-controlled at TOV_LastN 11.5, which helps sustain offensive output. However, their defense has matched their offense with a DRtg_LastN of 121.71 and PointsAllowed_LastN of 120.83, indicating a vulnerable, high-scoring environment whenever they play.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Minnesota’s recent stats show a more balanced but less explosive profile, with ORtg_LastN at 113.90 and TS_LastN at 56.60. Their eFG_LastN of 52.99 is solid, and they lean heavily on the perimeter with a very high ThreePointRate_LastN of 0.448 and 3PA_LastN of 40, hitting 14.29 threes per game. They play at a slightly faster tempo than San Antonio with a Pace_LastN of 100.46 and show moderate ball security at TOV_LastN 14.43. Defensively, their DRtg_LastN mirrors their offense at 113.90, with PointsAllowed_LastN of 114.43, suggesting league-average resistance but not a liability.

Edge: San Antonio’s raw recent efficiency numbers are higher, but heavily inflated by games that included Victor Wembanyama. Once his absence is accounted for, Minnesota’s more stable two-way profile and similar perimeter volume narrow or erase that gap, especially given the Spurs’ poor recent defense.

Rest & Travel Analysis

Fatigue Edge: The Spurs have logged slightly fewer miles, fewer timezone changes, and a lower TravelFatigueIndex, pointing to somewhat fresher legs. Minnesota, by contrast, shows a higher fatigue index and appears to be on the second night of a back-to-back. While this gives San Antonio a modest rest advantage, it is partially offset by Minnesota’s home court and the Spurs’ need to reconfigure without Wembanyama.

Lineup Synergy & Ref Tendencies

Synergy Score: San Antonio Spurs: 8.96 | Minnesota Timberwolves: 0.85

Synergy Edge: The raw synergy numbers show a sizable edge for San Antonio, suggesting their recent five-man groupings have performed efficiently relative to expectation. However, those lineups assume Victor Wembanyama’s presence, so the real current synergy is likely overstated for San Antonio and understated for Minnesota.

Referee Edge: Home Ref Impact: 0.16 | Away Ref Impact: 0.14 | Net Edge: 0.02

The referee data shows only a very slight lean toward the Timberwolves, implying a negligible but positive home tilt. There is no strong indication of an extreme pace or foul-bias environment from these small impact values, so officiating is unlikely to be a major determinant relative to injuries and talent.

Why San Antonio Spurs Covers

San Antonio’s argument for covering the number starts with their recent offensive form. With an ORtg_LastN of 121.71 and strong shooting marks of eFG_LastN 55.35 and TS_LastN just over 60%, the Spurs have shown they can score efficiently, especially from beyond the arc with a ThreePointRate_LastN of 0.426. Their TOV_LastN of 11.5 means they maximize possessions, and their Pace_LastN of 99.28 keeps the game in a rhythm that can minimize sloppy stretches. A lower TravelFatigueIndex (8.96 versus Minnesota’s 10.88) and no apparent back-to-back stress also favor San Antonio. If their role players sustain recent shooting and the offense holds up despite Wembanyama’s absence, the Spurs can keep this within one or two possessions.

Why Minnesota Timberwolves Covers

The Timberwolves’ case hinges on a combination of health, depth, and shooting volume. Minnesota is fully intact, with TotalWUDropoff at 0 and no critical injuries, while San Antonio is flagged with a STRONG_FADE signal and a BettingImpact of 5.2 tied to Victor Wembanyama’s absence. Offensively, Minnesota’s TS_LastN of 56.60 and eFG_LastN near 53% are solid, and their very high ThreePointRate_LastN of 0.448 with 40 attempts per game gives them explosive scoring potential at home. Their rebounding profile (DRB_Pct_LastN about 0.730) suggests they can limit second chances for a Spurs team missing its premier interior presence. Even with a slight travel disadvantage and potential back-to-back, Minnesota’s healthier roster and home environment strongly support them covering a modest -4.5 spread.

The Pick

Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5 (-110)