Game Preview
The Western Conference spotlight turns to New Orleans as the Pelicans host the young and up-tempo San Antonio Spurs. Both teams have shown flashes of explosive offense recently, but New Orleans is trying to solidify itself as a playoff mainstay while San Antonio continues to grow through a demanding road-heavy stretch. With both offenses humming at a similar level, the real intrigue lies in whether the Spurs can handle the environment and travel toll against a Pelicans group that usually feeds off its home court. Expect a fast pace, plenty of threes, and long scoring runs on both sides.
Game Information
| Date | Monday, December 8, 2025 |
| Tip-Off | 8:00 PM EST |
| Location | Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, Louisiana |
| Broadcast | Check local listings |
Injury Report
New Orleans Pelicans Injuries
- Out: Zion Williamson (listed out, minimal recent usage impact)
- Doubtful: None reported
- Questionable: Herbert Jones (questionable, low projected impact)
San Antonio Spurs Injuries
- Out: None reported
- Doubtful: None reported
- Questionable: Luke Kornet (questionable, minor rotation piece)
Player Impact Summary: The Pelicans’ total usage-weighted dropoff is about -3.8 points, suggesting their current injuries have only a modest effect on overall performance. San Antonio’s projected impact is essentially neutral at around +0.1 points, with no critical absences. With no major stars newly sidelined, the spread is driven more by form and situational factors than by injury news.
Pace & Efficiency Matchup
San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs have quietly put together an efficient offensive stretch, posting an estimated 117.9 offensive rating over their last several games. Their true shooting sits around a strong 57.6%, and they lean heavily into the modern game, averaging roughly 37.4 three-point attempts while knocking down about 13.1 threes per night. Pace-wise, they sit just under the century mark at about 100.0 possessions per game, fast but not reckless. Turnovers remain in a middling zone near 12.1 per game, and their offensive rebounding has been aggressive, with an offensive rebounding rate close to 28.9%. Defensively, however, they allow about 117.9 points per 100 possessions, a number that keeps opponents in every game.
New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans are playing at a slightly faster tempo, around 102.7 possessions per game in recent action, and matching San Antonio’s efficiency with an estimated 117.8 offensive rating. They have been sharp from the floor, with an effective field goal percentage near 53.9% and true shooting at about 57.8%, both comfortably above league average. New Orleans takes a moderate volume of threes, roughly 29.6 attempts and 11.4 makes per game, balancing perimeter shooting with paint attacks. Their offensive rebounding rate around 25.5% and strong defensive glass work at about 74.5% help them control possessions. On the downside, they are also giving up about 121.0 points per game over this stretch, indicating a defense that has slipped in recent outings despite stable rebounding.
Edge: Offensively, these teams are extremely similar, both playing at a high level with almost identical efficiency. The biggest stylistic contrast is San Antonio’s heavier reliance on three-point volume versus New Orleans’ more balanced attack and slightly quicker pace. The Pelicans’ stronger grip on the defensive glass and home environment gives them a small overall efficiency edge, but not a dramatic one on raw numbers alone.
Rest & Travel Analysis
| Factor | San Antonio Spurs | New Orleans Pelicans |
| Miles Traveled (L10) | 6,572 | 5,990 |
| Timezone Jumps | 5 | 3 |
| Travel Fatigue Index | 12.74 | 8.39 |
| Back-to-Back? | No | No |
Fatigue Edge: The Spurs have endured a grueling stretch, logging about 6,572 miles and five timezone changes over their last 10 days, reflected in a high travel fatigue index near 12.7. The Pelicans, while also traveling a fair amount at roughly 5,990 miles and three timezone shifts, carry a noticeably lower fatigue index around 8.4. With neither team on a back-to-back, New Orleans still enjoys a clear situational advantage, as San Antonio’s extended road grind can subtly sap legs, especially late in games and against a home team that likes to push tempo.
Lineup Synergy & Ref Tendencies
Synergy Score: San Antonio Spurs: 0.56 | New Orleans Pelicans: -5.65
Synergy Edge: Despite the record and market perception, recent lineup synergy numbers are slightly kinder to the Spurs, who sit just above neutral, while New Orleans is rated modestly negative. That suggests San Antonio’s primary rotations have meshed a bit better than expected, whereas the Pelicans are still fine-tuning combinations amid minor absences and role adjustments.
Referee Edge: Home Ref Impact: 0.16 | Away Ref Impact: 0.14 | Net Edge: 0.02
The officiating profile here is essentially neutral, with only a very slight lean toward the home side. That small edge could produce a marginal bump in free throws for New Orleans, but the numbers are not strong enough to meaningfully sway expectations about pace or foul distribution on their own.
Why San Antonio Spurs Covers
The case for the Spurs begins with the simple fact that their recent offensive profile stacks up nearly evenly with New Orleans. With an estimated 117.9 offensive rating and true shooting around 57.6%, San Antonio has enough firepower to stay within a big number, especially given their high-volume three-point approach. Launching about 37.4 threes and hitting over 13.0 per game, they are built to generate quick swings and erase deficits in a hurry. Their lineup synergy is slightly positive, pointing to rotations that are outperforming expectations despite their youth. While travel fatigue is a real concern, the Spurs are not on a back-to-back and have shown resilience through a challenging schedule. If their perimeter shots fall at normal levels and they sustain their strong offensive rebounding rate near 28.9%, they have a realistic path to hanging inside the +9.5 spread.
Why New Orleans Pelicans Covers
The argument for the Pelicans covering a sizeable spread is rooted in situational edges and style. New Orleans matches San Antonio’s recent offensive efficiency with an estimated 117.8 offensive rating and a slightly higher pace near 102.7 possessions, which favors a deeper home rotation against a road-weary opponent. Their true shooting around 57.8% and strong rebounding profile — including an offensive rebounding rate close to 25.5% and a defensive rate around 74.5% — allow them to win the possession battle and generate extra chances. The Spurs’ defense has been shaky, giving up about 117.9 points per 100 possessions, and their heavy recent travel (over 6,500 miles and five timezone shifts) may show up in second-half fatigue. With injuries having only minimal projected impact and the crowd behind them, New Orleans is well-positioned to build and maintain separation.
The Pick
New Orleans Pelicans -9.5 (-110)
