Game Preview
The in-season tournament raises the stakes as the New York Knicks head north to visit the Toronto Raptors in a matchup of Atlantic Division foes. New York has been rolling offensively in recent games, while Toronto leans on its home crowd and physical style to slow opponents down. With both teams eyeing momentum ahead of the heart of the season, every possession will matter. Expect a contrast in pace and offensive firepower that should make this a compelling watch from tip-off to the final buzzer.
Game Information
| Date | Tuesday, December 9, 2025 |
| Tip-Off | 8:30 PM EST |
| Location | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario |
| Broadcast | Check local listings |
Injury Report
Toronto Raptors Injuries
- Out: RJ Barrett (low-impact absence), Miles McBride (minimal impact), Landry Shamet (minimal impact)
- Doubtful: Jamison Battle (minimal role)
- Questionable: Jamal Shead (end-of-rotation guard)
New York Knicks Injuries
- Out: Miles McBride (already noted as minimal impact), Landry Shamet (spacing guard with limited recent role)
- Doubtful: Jamison Battle (project depth)
- Questionable: Karl-Anthony Towns (low to moderate impact if limited), Jamal Shead (bench guard)
Player Impact Summary: Both teams show moderate negative usage-weighted impact overall, with Toronto around -9.7 and New York near -14.1. However, most listed injuries are lower-usage pieces, and there are no flagged critical injuries. The main watch item is Karl-Anthony Towns’ status; if he sits, New York loses some offensive versatility, but current projections assume partial availability, keeping the spread impact to a manageable level.
Pace & Efficiency Matchup
New York Knicks
The New York Knicks have been explosive offensively in their recent eight-game sample. They have posted an estimated 127.2 offensive rating (last 10 games) with a strong 61.3% true shooting, marks that sit well above typical league averages. Their effective field goal percentage around 57.7% shows how efficiently they are converting, fueled by high-volume perimeter shooting. New York is taking about 37.3 three-point attempts per game and making roughly 14.8, with a three-point attempt rate above 41.9%, indicating a modern, spacing-oriented attack. They play at a slower pace near 94.7 possessions per game but protect the ball well with only about 11.8 turnovers, turning half-court precision into elite offensive production.
Toronto Raptors
The Toronto Raptors have been closer to league average on offense over their recent eight-game stretch. Their estimated 108.0 offensive rating (last 10 games) pairs with a 53.7% true shooting and 50.9% effective field goal percentage, which are respectable but not particularly efficient compared to New York. Toronto plays at a modest pace around 98.6 possessions per game, slightly quicker than the Knicks, but turns the ball over more frequently at about 15.6 miscues per contest. From deep, they attempt roughly 30.8 threes and make about 9.9, with a three-point attempt rate near 33.9%. That lower-volume perimeter approach places more pressure on their half-court creation and offensive rebounding, where they have been solid with an offensive rebounding rate around 27.9%.
Edge: New York holds a substantial edge in offensive efficiency and shot-making, shooting significantly better from the field and from three while turning the ball over less. Toronto’s slight pace advantage and offensive rebounding can help them hang around, but if this game is decided by half-court execution, the Knicks’ recent offensive profile strongly outclasses the Raptors.
Rest & Travel Analysis
| Factor | New York Knicks | Toronto Raptors |
| Miles Traveled (L10) | 3,340 | 1,460 |
| Timezone Jumps | 1 | 0 |
| Travel Fatigue Index | 7.60 | 3.28 |
| Back-to-Back? | No | No |
Fatigue Edge: The Raptors hold the rest and travel advantage, with roughly half the recent miles and a noticeably lower travel fatigue index. Both teams avoid a back-to-back, but New York’s heavier schedule and modest timezone movement can chip away at legs, particularly late. While this edge is real, it is not extreme enough on its own to outweigh the Knicks’ efficiency advantage, but it does slightly narrow the expected margin.
Lineup Synergy & Ref Tendencies
Synergy Score: New York Knicks: 15.88 | Toronto Raptors: -7.78
Synergy Edge: The Knicks show a very strong positive synergy score, indicating their main rotations are significantly outperforming expectations together. Toronto’s negative mark suggests their current combinations have struggled to find cohesion on both ends. This is a sizable advantage for New York in terms of lineup fit and consistency.
Referee Edge: Home Ref Impact: 0.16 | Away Ref Impact: 0.14 | Net Edge: 0.02
The referee profile offers only a very slight lean toward the home side, suggesting a marginal boost for Toronto in whistle-related factors like free throws and home cover rates. However, the difference is small enough that it should not materially change expectations on the spread, functioning more as a minor tiebreaker in a close contest.
Why New York Knicks Covers
The case for the New York Knicks starts with their dominant recent offense. With an estimated 127.2 offensive rating and 61.3% true shooting over their last eight games, they are converting at an elite level while maintaining careful ball security with under 12 turnovers per game. Their heavy three-point volume and accuracy, highlighted by nearly 37.3 attempts and 14.8 makes from deep, are tough for an average Raptors defense to match possession for possession. New York’s synergy score above 15.8 underscores how well current lineups mesh on both ends. Even factoring in a modest travel disadvantage and a slight referee lean to Toronto, the Knicks’ shot-making, spacing, and turnover edge project them to control the game flow and win by multiple possessions more often than not.
Why Toronto Raptors Covers
The argument for the Toronto Raptors revolves around rest, physicality, and home-court advantage. Toronto has logged roughly 1,460 miles recently with a travel fatigue index near 3.3, compared to New York’s 3,340 miles and higher fatigue rating of about 7.6. That fresher profile could matter late, especially if the game turns into a grind. The Raptors also play slightly faster, around 98.6 possessions, and can leverage a strong offensive rebounding rate close to 27.9% to generate second-chance points and disrupt the Knicks’ rhythm. If New York’s three-point shooting cools off on the road or Karl-Anthony Towns is limited, Toronto’s balanced approach and a small whistle-friendly environment could keep the margin within the number or even set up a late push.
The Pick
New York Knicks -4.5 (-110)
