NBA: Phoenix Suns vs New Orleans Pelicans (12/27/25)

Game Preview

Phoenix Suns and New Orleans Pelicans square off in a spot that could swing momentum heading into the heart of the schedule. Phoenix has flashed high-end shot-making in recent action, while New Orleans has been competitive night-to-night and has consistently played with pace and physicality at home. With both teams coming off games the previous day, legs and rotation choices will matter as much as star power. Expect a chess match between perimeter shot volume and New Orleans’ ability to keep pressure on the glass and in transition.

Game Information

Date	Saturday, December 27, 2025
Tip-Off	7:00 PM EST
Location	Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, Louisiana
Broadcast	Check local listings

Injury Report

New Orleans Pelicans Injuries

• Out: None reported in available data
• Doubtful: None reported in available data
• Questionable: Herbert Jones

Phoenix Suns Injuries

• Out: None reported in available data
• Doubtful: None reported in available data
• Questionable: Grayson Allen

Player Impact Summary: The injury signals are relatively mild on both sides. New Orleans shows a usage-weighted impact of -2.3 with a minimal-tag questionable, while Phoenix checks in at -2.0 with a similarly minimal questionable. Unless one of these statuses changes to an out designation closer to tip, the spread should be driven more by travel, lineup fit, and shot profile than availability.

Pace & Efficiency Matchup

Phoenix Suns

Phoenix has played at a slower tempo recently, running a 99.0 pace over its last five games, but the shot quality has been strong. They’ve produced a 116.4 offensive rating with an efficient 59.5% true shooting and 55.4% effective field goal mark. The swing factor is volume from deep: Phoenix is taking 36.2 threes per game with a hefty 41.7% three-point attempt rate, which can create runs quickly but also introduces variance if the looks don’t fall. Turnovers have been a concern at 15.6 per game.

New Orleans Pelicans

New Orleans has been more uptempo, posting a 104.4 pace over its last six games, and that speed has helped them keep their offense afloat. Their recent offensive rating sits at 115.0 with 56.8% true shooting and a 52.2% effective field goal rate, solid but a tier below Phoenix’s finishing efficiency. The Pelicans have been more moderate from three, attempting 28.7 threes per game with a 31.0% three-point attempt rate, which can reduce volatility. They’ve also kept turnovers to 13.7 per game and have competed on the offensive glass with a 26.2% offensive rebounding rate.

Edge: Phoenix holds the cleaner shooting profile and slightly stronger recent scoring efficiency, especially from three-point volume. New Orleans counters with a faster pace and a more controlled shot diet that can stabilize a plus-spread position, particularly if they can generate extra possessions via offensive rebounds and take care of the ball.

Rest & Travel Analysis

Factor	Phoenix Suns	New Orleans Pelicans
Miles Traveled (L10)	6,939	5,859
Timezone Jumps	6	4
Travel Fatigue Index	13.76	7.92
Back-to-Back?	Yes	Yes

Fatigue Edge: Both teams are on a back-to-back based on the most recent game date, but Phoenix has logged significantly heavier travel stress. The Suns’ 13.8 travel fatigue index and higher timezone churn suggest a greater chance of tired legs affecting perimeter accuracy and late-game defense. New Orleans’ travel profile is lighter and more stable, which is meaningful in a short-rest game where effort plays often decide whether an underdog covers.

Lineup Synergy & Ref Tendencies

Synergy Score: Phoenix Suns: 7.20 | New Orleans Pelicans: 2.14

Synergy Edge: The raw synergy numbers indicate Phoenix lineups have performed more cohesively overall in the sampled window. However, the spread case for New Orleans leans on situational edges and game-state stability rather than claiming a pure rotation advantage.

Referee Edge: Home Ref Impact: 0.13 | Away Ref Impact: 0.11 | Net Edge: 0.02

The officiating lean is essentially neutral with a slight tilt toward the home side. In a moderate spread, that’s a small but helpful nudge, especially if it supports New Orleans’ physicality and ability to get to the line or control rebounds without foul trouble.

Why Phoenix Suns Covers

Phoenix can cover by letting its shot profile do the heavy lifting. Over recent games they’ve paired a 116.4 offensive rating with a strong 59.5% true shooting mark, and their commitment to the three-point line is clear with 36.2 attempts per game and a 41.7% three-point attempt rate. If the Suns get clean looks early and force New Orleans to chase over screens, the pace can slow into a half-court game that favors the more efficient shooting team. New Orleans has allowed 120.0 points per game recently, so Phoenix doesn’t need a perfect defensive night. If the Pelicans’ moderate three-point volume can’t keep up with a Suns barrage, the margin can grow fast.

Why New Orleans Pelicans Covers

New Orleans has a realistic path to the number by winning the possession battle and leaning into the situational edge. The Pelicans have played faster at a 104.4 pace recently, and in a back-to-back environment, their lower travel fatigue profile matters: a 7.9 travel fatigue index versus Phoenix’s 13.8 suggests fresher legs for late-game execution. New Orleans also protects the ball better with 13.7 turnovers per game compared to Phoenix at 15.6, and they’ve been competitive on the offensive glass with a 26.2% offensive rebounding rate that can steal extra points even if shooting is merely average. With injuries graded as minimal on both sides, the plus points and home environment set up well for a tight, cover-friendly script.

The Pick

New Orleans Pelicans +4.5 (-110)