NFL: LV vs NYG (12/28/25)

Game Preview

New York Giants head to Las Vegas in a late-season spot where both teams are trying to find some stability before the calendar flips. The biggest intrigue is how each offense functions with key weapons missing, and whether either quarterback can create chunk plays without leaning on a full-strength supporting cast. Las Vegas Raiders get the comfort of home inside Allegiant Stadium, but the injury list could force them into a tighter, more conservative game plan. This one sets up as a contrast of steadiness versus disruption, and a few red-zone snaps could decide it.

Game Information

Injury Report

Las Vegas Raiders Injuries

• Out: Jordan Meredith, Raheem Mostert, Maxx Crosby, Jack Bech, Brock Bowers, Jeremy Chinn, Jackson Powers-Johnson, Kyu Blu Kelly, Brennan Jackson, Phillip Dorsett, Terrell Edmunds, Chris Collier, Aidan O’Connell, Brodric Martin
• Questionable: Kolton Miller

New York Giants Injuries

• Out: Malik Nabers, Anthony Johnson Jr., Nic Jones, John Michael Schmitz Jr., Bryce Ford-Wheaton, Da’Quan Felton, Cam Skattebo, TJ Moore, Thomas Fidone II, D.J. Davidson, Tyler Nubin, Theo Johnson, Rakeem Nuñez-Roches Sr., Graham Gano, Chris Board, Victor Dimukeje, Andrew Thomas, Micah McFadden, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Cor’Dale Flott, Russell Wilson, Dante Miller, Jalin Hyatt, Caleb Murphy
• Questionable: Beaux Collins, Evan Neal, Joshua Ezeudu

Quarterback Matchup

Jaxson Dart (New York Giants)

Dart’s recent production has been modest, and the efficiency number jumps off the page in a concerning way. Over his last three games, he’s averaging 139.3 passing yards on 24.3 attempts with 5.05 yards per attempt (away_qb_stats.L3.passing_yards, away_qb_stats.L3.passing_attempts, away_qb_stats.L3.yards_per_attempt). The completion rate is workable at 60.1%, but the offense hasn’t generated consistent downfield damage (away_qb_stats.L3.completion_pct). The one stabilizer is ball security: 1.0 passing TD against 0.7 INT per game recently (away_qb_stats.L3.passing_tds, away_qb_stats.L3.passing_ints), plus some mobility at 30.0 rush yards per game (away_qb_stats.L3.rushing_yards).

Geno Smith (Las Vegas Raiders)

Smith has been more efficient in the same window, and that matters in a game lined near a field goal. Over his last three games, he’s averaging 160.7 passing yards with 7.15 yards per attempt and a strong 69.9% completion rate (home_qb_stats.L3.passing_yards, home_qb_stats.L3.yards_per_attempt, home_qb_stats.L3.completion_pct). Touchdowns have been there at 1.7 passing TD per game, though turnovers are a mild concern with 0.7 INT per game (home_qb_stats.L3.passing_tds, home_qb_stats.L3.passing_ints). The biggest flag is protection: he’s taking 3.7 sacks per game recently (home_qb_stats.L3.sacks_taken), and that becomes a bigger storyline if Las Vegas is thin up front.

Edge: On recent efficiency alone, Las Vegas Raiders have the quarterback advantage thanks to Smith’s higher yards per attempt and completion rate (home_qb_stats.L3.yards_per_attempt vs away_qb_stats.L3.yards_per_attempt). The counter is context: both sides are missing key weapons, and sack/pressure swings can erase a clean QB edge quickly (home_qb_stats.L3.sacks_taken).

Why New York Giants Covers

The Giants’ path starts with surviving the injury hits and turning this into a lower-scoring, mistake-light game. Even with Dart’s low 5.05 yards per attempt over his last three (away_qb_stats.L3.yards_per_attempt), he’s largely avoided catastrophic turnover games, averaging 0.7 interceptions in that span (away_qb_stats.L3.passing_ints). That matters against a Las Vegas team missing several offensive pillars, including Brock Bowers and Jack Bech (home_team_injuries.injuries[].Name with Status Out), which can shrink the Raiders’ margin for error if they fall behind the sticks. The biggest hidden advantage is that Las Vegas is also without Maxx Crosby (home_team_injuries.injuries[].Name), a game-wrecker who can end drives by himself and force the kind of rushed throws that create runaway covers. If the Giants can keep Dart upright and lean on short completions plus his 30.0 rush yards per game (away_qb_stats.L3.rushing_yards), they can steal possessions and win the late-game math.

Why Las Vegas Raiders Covers

Las Vegas covers if Geno Smith plays to his recent efficiency and the Raiders’ offense avoids drive-killing mistakes. Smith’s last-three profile is clearly stronger than Dart’s: 7.15 yards per attempt and 69.9% completions (home_qb_stats.L3.yards_per_attempt, home_qb_stats.L3.completion_pct) versus Dart’s 5.05 and 60.1% (away_qb_stats.L3.yards_per_attempt, away_qb_stats.L3.completion_pct). That kind of gap usually shows up in third-and-manageable and red-zone opportunities, even if the box score yardage isn’t massive. The Giants’ injury list is also heavy at premium positions, with multiple offensive line pieces and top-end defenders out (away_team_injuries.injuries[].Name, away_team_injuries.injuries[].Status), which can tilt both protection and explosive-play prevention in Las Vegas’ favor. And while the Raiders are shorthanded, they still get the controlled environment of a dome on grass (StadiumDetails.Type, StadiumDetails.PlayingSurface), which reduces weather variance and tends to reward the more efficient passing quarterback.

The Pick

New York Giants ML (-162)