NFL: SF vs CHI (12/28/25)

Game Preview

Sunday night in Santa Clara sets up as a classic late-season measuring stick: the Chicago Bears head west to face the San Francisco 49ers with two quarterbacks capable of turning a game in a handful of throws. Caleb Williams has been protecting the ball lately, while Brock Purdy has been explosive and efficient over his last few outings. The intrigue here is the surrounding cast and who actually makes it to kickoff, because this matchup has several star-level names sitting on the injury report. If you like chess matches, this one has it: spacing throws and timing routes versus pressure and field position.

Game Information

Injury Report

San Francisco 49ers Injuries

• Out: Fred Warner, Nick Bosa, Brandon Aiyuk, Ben Bartch, Trent Taylor, Tarron Jackson, Patrick Taylor Jr., Jakob Robinson, Nick Martin, Mykel Williams, Renardo Green, Tre Tomlinson, Jacob Cowing
• Questionable: George Kittle, Ricky Pearsall, Kurtis Rourke

Chicago Bears Injuries

• Out: Rome Odunze, Braxton Jones, Kyler Gordon, Dayo Odeyingbo, Roschon Johnson, Kiran Amegadjie, Ricky Stromberg, Nikola Kalinic, Qadir Ismail, Terell Smith, Shemar Turner, Zah Frazier, Nick McCloud, Deion Hankins
• Questionable: DJ Moore, Olamide Zaccheaus, Darnell Wright, T.J. Edwards, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Nahshon Wright, Josh Blackwell

Quarterback Matchup

Caleb Williams (Chicago Bears)

Williams’ last three games paint a picture of a young quarterback playing cleaner football. Over that span he’s averaged 226.0 passing yards with 2.0 passing TDs and just 0.33 INTs per game, while taking only 1.33 sacks on average (see away_qb_stats.L3). The efficiency is a bit up-and-down, but the baseline is workable: 7.10 yards per attempt with a 56.96% completion rate (see away_qb_stats.L3.yards_per_attempt and away_qb_stats.L3.completion_pct). He’s also adding a modest rushing element at 19.33 rush yards per game (see away_qb_stats.L3.rushing_yards), which can matter on third down when protection breaks.

Brock Purdy (San Francisco 49ers)

Purdy has been the more efficient quarterback recently, and it shows in the explosive passing numbers. Over his last three games, he’s averaging 252.67 passing yards, 3.0 passing TDs, and 8.10 yards per attempt with a strong 68.46% completion rate (see home_qb_stats.L3.passing_yards, home_qb_stats.L3.passing_tds, home_qb_stats.L3.yards_per_attempt, home_qb_stats.L3.completion_pct). The trade-off is slightly higher mistake potential: 0.33 INTs and 0.67 turnovers per game (see home_qb_stats.L3.passing_ints and home_qb_stats.L3.turnovers). He’s also chipped in 19.67 rushing yards per game plus 0.33 rushing TDs (see home_qb_stats.L3.rushing_yards and home_qb_stats.L3.rushing_tds), which helps in the red zone and on broken plays.

Edge: Purdy has the efficiency advantage right now, especially in yards per attempt and completion rate (see home_qb_stats.L3 vs away_qb_stats.L3). The counter is that Williams has been protecting the ball and avoiding sacks, which keeps Chicago live as an underdog if the supporting cast shows up.

Why Chicago Bears Covers

The clearest path to a Chicago Bears cover is the injury math. San Francisco is down high-end defensive pieces, including Fred Warner (Out) and Nick Bosa (Out) (see home_team_injuries.injuries), and that matters when you’re laying more than a field goal. Without Bosa, the pass rush edge shrinks, and Williams has only been sacked 1.33 times per game over his last three (see away_qb_stats.L3.sacks_taken). If Chicago gets even one of its questionable receivers (notably DJ Moore) closer to full strength (see away_team_injuries.injuries), the offense has enough juice to trade scores. The game environment also doesn’t scream “slugfest”: it’s clear with light wind (4 mph) at Levi’s Stadium (see away_team_trends.UpcomingGame.ForecastDescription and away_team_trends.UpcomingGame.ForecastWindSpeed), which helps the underdog finish drives instead of settling for punts and long field goals.

Why San Francisco 49ers Covers

The San Francisco 49ers case starts with the quarterback. Purdy’s last-three efficiency is excellent: 8.10 YPA with 3.0 passing TDs per game (see home_qb_stats.L3.yards_per_attempt and home_qb_stats.L3.passing_tds), and that kind of downfield production can separate quickly against any opponent. San Francisco also brings a recent results profile that suggests they’re playing fast and finishing: they’re 5-0 over their last five games with a 34.4 points per game average (see home_team_trends.TeamGameTrends with scope Last 5 Games). Chicago has its own injury concerns, especially at receiver and along the line (e.g., Rome Odunze Out, Braxton Jones Out, and Darnell Wright Questionable; see away_team_injuries.injuries), and if protection cracks, a spread like -3.5 can get covered on one short-field turnover or a late-game two-score swing.

The Pick

Chicago Bears +3.5 (-118)