NFL: SF vs SEA (01/03/26)

Game Preview

Week 18 brings a familiar NFC West fight as Seattle Seahawks travel to Levi’s Stadium to face the San Francisco 49ers. The headline is the quarterback play: Sam Darnold’s steady recent stretch meets Brock Purdy’s red-hot production. But the bigger story may be availability, with key names on both sides carrying significant status tags. Add moderate rain in the forecast, and this one has the feel of a tight, high-leverage divisional game that can swing on a handful of plays.

Game Information

Injury Report

San Francisco 49ers Injuries

• Out: Ben Bartch, Tarron Jackson, Brandon Aiyuk, Patrick Taylor Jr., Jacob Cowing, Tre Tomlinson, Mykel Williams, Nick Martin, Kurtis Rourke, Jakob Robinson, Nick Bosa, Trent Taylor, Fred Warner
• Questionable: Ricky Pearsall, Upton Stout, Keion White, Trent Williams, George Kittle

Seattle Seahawks Injuries

• Out: Elijah Arroyo, Jacardia Wright, Tyrone Broden, AJ Finley, Kenny McIntosh, Tory Horton, George Holani, Charles Cross, Chazz Surratt, Shane Lemieux, Cody White
• Questionable: Josh Jones

Quarterback Matchup

Sam Darnold (Seattle Seahawks)

Darnold’s last three games paint the picture of a functional, rhythm-based passing attack rather than a fireworks show. He’s averaging 229.3 passing yards on 32.3 attempts with a 6.97 yards per attempt mark and a 64.2% completion rate. The touchdown-to-interception profile is modest at 1.0 TD to 1.0 INT per game, and the turnover rate matters here given a divisional opponent. Protection has been manageable with 2.7 sacks taken per game recently, and he’s adding almost nothing as a runner (4.7 rush yards per game). The path for Seattle is staying on schedule and avoiding short fields.

Brock Purdy (San Francisco 49ers)

Purdy comes in scorching over his last three games, averaging 297.7 passing yards on 32.3 attempts with elite efficiency at 9.23 yards per attempt and a 74.3% completion rate. The scoring output jumps off the page: 3.7 passing TDs per game, plus 0.7 rushing TDs, while keeping mistakes relatively contained at 0.7 INTs. He’s also been difficult to pin down, taking just 1.3 sacks per game and adding real mobility with 27.7 rushing yards per game. The main question isn’t form; it’s how his supporting cast and protection hold up with multiple key contributors listed out or questionable.

Edge: On pure recent performance, Purdy has the clear edge in efficiency and touchdown creation, especially with 9.23 YPA and a 74.3% completion rate versus Darnold’s 6.97 YPA and 64.2%. The counter is the availability situation around him, where San Francisco’s injury list threatens to drag the offense back toward the pack.

Why Seattle Seahawks Covers

First, the injury landscape creates an opening for Seattle Seahawks even on the road. San Francisco lists major defensive absences including Nick Bosa (Out) and Fred Warner (Out), plus multiple other defenders unavailable. That matters against a Seattle offense that, while not explosive through Darnold lately, can still function when it isn’t constantly behind the sticks. Second, the weather points toward a game that can be decided by field position and mistakes: the forecast calls for Moderate Rain with 13 mph wind, conditions that tend to punish aggressive, low-margin throws and make one turnover feel like two. Third, Seattle enters with strong recent results, including a 5-0 run over its last five games. If this turns into a possession-by-possession divisional grinder, Seattle has a realistic path: protect the ball, lean on the run game, and capitalize on a short-handed opponent front.

Why San Francisco 49ers Covers

The case for San Francisco 49ers starts with the quarterback ceiling. Purdy’s last three games have been nuclear: 297.7 yards, 3.7 passing TDs, and 9.23 YPA with a 74.3% completion rate. If he’s even close to that level, San Francisco can overcome a lot, because explosive efficiency erases bad-down problems. The 49ers also get the comfort of home at Levi’s Stadium, and recent form has been strong in its own right, with 5-0 straight up and 5-0 against the spread over the last five games. And while the injury report is heavy, some of the most impactful offensive pieces are listed as Questionable rather than out, including Trent Williams and George Kittle. If those two play and hold up, the matchup tilts back toward San Francisco’s offense being the best unit on the field.

The Pick

Seattle Seahawks ML (-148)