MLB: Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals (03/29/26)

Game Preview

Washington heads back into Wrigley Field looking to answer after a 10-2 loss on Friday, but this matchup shifts to a new starting pitching battle with Jake Irvin facing Shota Imanaga. Chicago has been far better at home than on the road lately, and that puts extra attention on whether the Cubs can keep controlling this series in front of their own crowd. The Nationals still bring some danger because this matchup has produced plenty of swings in recent meetings, and one big inning can change everything at Wrigley.

Game Information

Recent Matchup History

• March 28, 2026: Washington 2 at Chicago 10
• March 26, 2026: Washington 10 at Chicago 4
• September 7, 2025: Washington 6 at Chicago 3
• September 6, 2025: Washington 2 at Chicago 1
• September 5, 2025: Washington 5 at Chicago 11

Why Chicago Cubs Could Win

Chicago could win if this game follows the same script the Cubs have built at home for a while now. They are 8-2 in their last 10 home games and 4-1 in their last 5 home games, while scoring 5.1 runs per game over that 10-game home sample and allowing only 2.4. That is a strong base for Shota Imanaga, who already shut Washington out in this matchup on September 22, 2024 when the Cubs won 5-0. Chicago also just handled this lineup on Friday, winning by 8 runs and limiting Washington to only 4 hits. The Cubs have covered in 8 of their last 10 home games, and their lineup should get chances if they keep putting traffic on the bases early. With cool weather and a 12 mph wind, this sets up like a game where pitching and home-field rhythm matter.

Why Washington Nationals Could Win

Washington could win if Jake Irvin gives them enough length to keep the game out of the middle innings and if their lineup gets to Chicago before the Cubs can settle in. The Nationals have actually been better away from home than at home lately, going 2-1 in their last 3 road games and 3-2 against the spread in their last 5 away games. They also beat Chicago at Wrigley on March 26 by a 10-4 score, so there is recent proof this offense can break through here. The matchup history is not one-sided either, with Washington winning 3 of the last 5 meetings overall. If hitters like James Wood and CJ Abrams get on base ahead of the middle of the order, the Nationals can pressure Chicago into a higher-scoring game than the home side wants. Washington’s recent games have also leaned high scoring, with 4 overs in its last 5 games.

Final Pick

Chicago Cubs RL -1.5 (-120)

Confidence: 6.48/10.00

This play clears the minimum edge. A price of -120 implies a break-even rate of about 54.5%, and the true cover probability comes in around 58%. Chicago has the stronger home trend profile, the steadier starting pitching setup with Imanaga, and a fresh boost from Friday’s 10-2 result. The main concern is Washington already winning once in this series at Wrigley, which keeps this below the highest confidence tier.