Game Preview
The Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs are right back at it after a tight 2-0 game on Friday, and this rematch brings a very different pitching look. Chicago turns to Edward Cabrera, while Pittsburgh answers with Bailey Falter, setting up a matchup between a home favorite trying to even the series and a road club that has played sharp baseball lately. With Wrigley Field expected to see cool weather and a modest breeze, this looks like another game where every baserunner and every bullpen move could matter.
Game Information
| Date | Saturday, April 11, 2026 |
| Time | 2:20 PM EST |
| Venue | Wrigley Field |
Recent Matchup History
- April 10, 2026: Pittsburgh Pirates 2 at Chicago Cubs 0
- September 17, 2025: Chicago Cubs 8 at Pittsburgh Pirates 4
- September 16, 2025: Chicago Cubs 4 at Pittsburgh Pirates 1
- September 15, 2025: Chicago Cubs 4 at Pittsburgh Pirates 0
- August 17, 2025: Pittsburgh Pirates 3 at Chicago Cubs 4
Why Chicago Could Win
Chicago could win this game if Cabrera gives them the same swing-and-miss profile he showed in his recent work. In his March 30 start, he allowed just 1 hit with 5 strikeouts, a 7.5 K/9, a 1.5 BB/9, and a tiny 0.161 OPS against. That matters against a Pittsburgh lineup that piled up strikeouts Friday, with Marcell Ozuna, Joey Bart, Nick Gonzales, Nick Yorke, Billy Cook, and Konnor Griffin all going down at least once. Chicago also gets the benefit of a rested bullpen group, with every listed reliever showing Green availability. At the plate, Ian Happ is coming off a 2-hit game, Carson Kelly reached base four times with 1 hit and 3 walks, and Nico Hoerner added a hit plus a walk. The Cubs are only 2-3 in their last five home games, but as a favorite they are 3-2 over their last five, and this pitching setup gives them a fair shot to bounce back.
Why Pittsburgh Could Win
Pittsburgh could win because the recent form is better than the price suggests. The Pirates are 7-3 over their last 10 games, 4-1 over their last 5 road games, and 3-0 in their last 3 away games with an average of 6 runs scored in that span. They also come in with the fresher bullpen profile, carrying a team stress score of just 2 compared to Chicago’s 6. That is a real edge in a low-total game. Bryan Reynolds homered Friday and has also handled this pitching matchup before, while Ryan O’Hearn owns strong past results against the opposing starter with a .600 average and 1.4 OPS in limited history. Oneil Cruz also reached base twice Friday and stole a bag, giving Pittsburgh a way to create pressure without waiting for a long ball. Head-to-head, the Pirates just won here on Friday, and their recent road trend against the spread at 4-1 over the last five away games lines up with another competitive afternoon.
Final Pick
Pittsburgh Pirates ML (+128)
