MLB: Seattle vs New York (04/01/26)

Game Preview

The New York Yankees and Seattle Mariners close this series with a strong pitching contrast and a low total on the board at 7. Seattle hands the ball to George Kirby after a sharp outing, while New York comes in off a 5-0 win on Tuesday behind Max Fried and a lineup that got traffic all night. With cool weather, light rain in the forecast, and both bullpens in good shape, this looks like a game where every baserunner could matter.

Game Information

Recent Matchup History

• March 31, 2026: New York Yankees 5 at Seattle Mariners 0
• March 30, 2026: New York Yankees 1 at Seattle Mariners 2
• July 10, 2025: Seattle Mariners 5 at New York Yankees 6
• July 9, 2025: Seattle Mariners 6 at New York Yankees 9
• July 8, 2025: Seattle Mariners 3 at New York Yankees 10

Why Seattle Could Win

Seattle could win if George Kirby looks more like the pitcher from March 27 than the one New York saw from Logan Gilbert on Tuesday. In that start, Kirby allowed just 2 hits, 1 earned run, struck out 6, and posted a 9.000 K/9 with a 3.000 BB/9. That kind of strike-throwing matters in a game with a low total and cool weather. The Mariners also have a bullpen that is fully available, with Andrés Muñoz, Eduard Bazardo, and Casey Legumina all graded green and the team stress sitting at just 4. At the plate, Julio Rodríguez has at least shown some life against this staff, going 1-for-3 with a double in the matchup sample, and he reached base twice on Tuesday. Seattle is also 3-2 in its last 5 home games and has stayed competitive in low-scoring spots, with the under cashing in 2 of its last 3 overall.

Why New York Could Win

New York could win because the Yankees have been the steadier team in this series and their recent form points to another tight, controlled game. They are 4-1 in their last 5 games, 4-1 in their last 5 away games, and the under has hit in 4 of those 5. Tuesday’s 5-0 win was a clean example: New York scored early, got length from the starter, and never put pressure on the bullpen. That relief group is also in good shape, with team stress at just 4 and key arms like David Bednar, Jake Bird, and Tim Hill all fully available. The lineup has also shown recent spark against Seattle pitching. In the last game, Ben Rice went 2-for-2 with 2 walks, Cody Bellinger had 2 hits and a steal, and Giancarlo Stanton drove in 2. Even in the head-to-head sample against Seattle pitching, José Caballero is 2-for-2 and Randal Grichuk has a home run.

Final Pick

Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees — Under 7 (-122)

Confidence: 6.44/10.00

The under gets the call because the break-even rate at -122 is about 54.955%, and this matchup grades closer to a true probability around 58%. That gives it a playable edge of roughly 3.045%. The strongest support comes from recent under trends for New York, a low total game environment at T-Mobile Park with 45-degree weather and light rain, plus both bullpens entering fresh. The main concern is that George Kirby is facing a Yankees lineup that just broke through in this series, so the edge is good but not elite.