Game Preview
The Memphis Grizzlies travel to face the Sacramento Kings in a matchup that could shape the middle of the Western Conference pack. Memphis has quietly found an offensive groove, while Sacramento is forced to reinvent its identity with Domantas Sabonis sidelined. Both teams love to play with pace and stretch the floor from deep, setting up a potentially explosive scoring environment. With the line tight and star power altered by injuries, this showdown offers plenty of intrigue for bettors and fans alike.
Game Information
| Date | Sunday, November 30, 2025 |
| Tip-Off | 9:00 PM EST |
| Location | Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, California |
| Broadcast | Check local listings |
Injury Report
Sacramento Kings Injuries
- Out: Domantas Sabonis (significant frontcourt and playmaking loss)
- Doubtful: None reported
- Questionable: Dennis Schröder (minor rotational impact)
Memphis Grizzlies Injuries
- Out: Ja Morant (currently graded as minimal impact in this window)
- Doubtful: None reported
- Questionable: None reported
Player Impact Summary: The model flags Sacramento with a strong fade signal due to a TotalWUDropoff of 5.28 and a BettingImpact of 5.3, driven largely by Sabonis being out (WU_Drop 6.63). Memphis, by contrast, shows a mild availability effect with a TotalWUDropoff of 0.95 and BettingImpact of 1.0, suggesting their current rotation is mostly intact and more stable.
Pace & Efficiency Matchup
Memphis Grizzlies
The Memphis Grizzlies have posted an offensive rating of 115.9 over their last seven games (away_team_form.ORtg_LastN), signaling a strong recent stretch on that end. Their TS% at 55.24% and eFG% at 51.79% (away_team_form.TS_LastN, eFG_LastN) are solidly above league average. Memphis is playing at a slightly below-elite tempo with a Pace of 98.65 (away_team_form.Pace_LastN), keeping turnovers in check at 12.86 per game. From deep, they are aggressive with a 3PA volume of 40.0 and 13.71 makes, driving a high three-point rate of 42.49%. Defensively, their rating of 115.9 (away_team_form.DRtg_LastN) is only average, and offensive rebounding both for and against is elevated, leading to extra possessions and some volatility in game flow.
Sacramento Kings
The Sacramento Kings are more moderate offensively in this recent sample, with an ORtg of 109.34 (home_team_form.ORtg_LastN). Their shooting profile shows an eFG% of 52.06% and TS% of 55.74%, comparable in efficiency but with less total scoring output than Memphis. Sacramento is playing faster, at a Pace of 100.47 (home_team_form.Pace_LastN), and maintains similar turnover numbers at 13.14. They take 30.43 threes per game with a three-point rate of 34.19%, notably lower reliance on the arc than Memphis. Defensively, their DRtg of 109.34 (home_team_form.DRtg_LastN) shows stronger resistance than Memphis on a per-possession basis, and they control the defensive glass at a DRB% of 78.25%. However, Sabonis’ absence could undercut those rebounding advantages going forward.
Edge: In raw efficiency, Memphis owns a clear offensive edge with a roughly six-point gap in offensive rating, while Sacramento holds the better recent defensive profile. Given Sacramento’s defense is heavily tied to Sabonis’ rebounding and facilitation, the net advantage swings slightly toward Memphis, especially on the perimeter where their high three-point volume can exploit any rotation or communication gaps.
Rest & Travel Analysis
| Factor | Memphis Grizzlies | Sacramento Kings |
| Miles Traveled (L10) | 6,444 | 5,759 |
| Timezone Jumps | 3 | 4 |
| Travel Fatigue Index | 11.07 | 12.66 |
| Back-to-Back? | No | No |
Fatigue Edge: Both teams have logged heavy travel over their last 10 days, with Memphis at 6,444 miles and Sacramento at 5,759 miles. The Travel Fatigue Index is slightly worse for the Kings (12.66 vs. 11.07), and they have endured more timezone changes. Neither club appears to be on the second night of a back-to-back in this window, so rest is relatively balanced. Overall, there is only a mild, practical fatigue edge for Memphis, and it is unlikely to be a decisive factor but does slightly support the road favorite.
Lineup Synergy & Ref Tendencies
Synergy Score: Memphis Grizzlies: 2.99 | Sacramento Kings: -10.01
Synergy Edge: The synergy differential is substantial, with Memphis showing a modestly positive score while Sacramento’s lineups are significantly underperforming expectations. The roughly 13-point gap suggests the Grizzlies’ current rotations and combinations are functioning more cohesively, while the Kings are still searching for balance, a problem amplified by the loss of Sabonis.
Referee Edge: Home Ref Impact: 0.16 | Away Ref Impact: 0.14 | Net Edge: 0.02
The referee profile offers only a very slight tilt toward the home side, effectively neutral in betting terms. With a minimal net edge of 0.02, there is no strong historical bias toward pace, foul frequency, or home cover rates evident here, so officiating is not expected to meaningfully distort the matchup or total.
Why Memphis Grizzlies Covers
The case for the Memphis Grizzlies starts with their superior recent offense. Their ORtg of 115.9 and heavier three-point volume (40.0 attempts, 42.49% rate) give them more explosive scoring potential than a Sabonis-less Kings squad. Even though their defense has been average, Sacramento’s attack is likely to regress without their primary hub in the middle, effectively shrinking the gap between Memphis’ offense and the Kings’ defense. Synergy metrics show Memphis at +2.99 compared to Sacramento’s -10.01, a major indicator that the Grizzlies’ rotations are working while the Kings scramble for answers. Travel and fatigue are essentially neutral, and Memphis also benefits from having a far smaller injury-driven dropoff. With the spread only at -2.5, they do not need to dominate the game to cover.
Why Sacramento Kings Covers
The Sacramento Kings still have a realistic path to covering at home, particularly if their defensive form holds. Their DRtg of 109.34 and strong defensive rebounding percentage of 78.25% suggest they can limit Memphis’ second chances and keep the game within one or two possessions. Sacramento is also playing slightly faster at a Pace of 100.47, which could allow their guards and wings to generate early offense in transition against a middling Grizzlies defense. If their three-point shooting (10 makes on 30.43 attempts) spikes at home and role players step up to compensate for Sabonis’ absence, the Kings can match Memphis’ perimeter scoring for stretches. A modest home-ref lean and typical home-court energy at Golden 1 Center offer additional subtle support for Sacramento keeping this inside the number.
The Pick
Memphis Grizzlies -2.5 (-110)
