Game Preview
The Los Angeles Lakers host the New Orleans Pelicans in a late-night Western Conference matchup that could swing early-season momentum for both sides. Los Angeles has been putting up explosive offensive numbers at home, even as they manage minutes and injuries to key veterans. New Orleans, meanwhile, continues to battle through a long list of absences but has shown stretches of resilience and improved rebounding. With a massive spread on the board, all eyes will be on whether the Pelicans can keep this close or if the Lakers turn it into a statement win at home.
Game Information
| Date | Sunday, November 30, 2025 |
| Tip-Off | 9:30 PM EST |
| Location | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, California |
| Broadcast | Check local listings |
Injury Report
Los Angeles Lakers Injuries
- Out: LeBron James (listed out, impact labeled LOW, WU_Drop 1.94); Marcus Smart (out, impact MINIMAL, WU_Drop -12.79)
- Doubtful: None reported
- Questionable: None reported
New Orleans Pelicans Injuries
- Out: Trey Murphy III (out, impact MINIMAL, WU_Drop 0.7); Zion Williamson (out, impact MINIMAL, WU_Drop -0.7); Jordan Hawkins (out, impact MINIMAL, WU_Drop -5.42); Herbert Jones (out, impact MINIMAL, WU_Drop -6.77); Karlo Matković (out, impact MINIMAL, WU_Drop -7.64)
- Doubtful: None reported
- Questionable: None reported
Player Impact Summary: The Lakers show a TotalWUDropoff of -10.85 and BettingImpact of -10.8, suggesting moderate rotational disruption but no flagged critical injuries. The Pelicans carry a higher TotalWUDropoff of -19.83 and BettingImpact of -19.8, indicating more aggregate talent loss, though most are graded as minimal impact. Overall, New Orleans is thinner, but neither side appears devastated from a betting-model perspective.
Pace & Efficiency Matchup
New Orleans Pelicans
The New Orleans Pelicans have played at a slightly faster tempo recently, with a Pace_LastN of 100.67, putting them in the uptempo tier. Their offense is solid but not elite, posting an ORtg_LastN of 113.37 with a TS_LastN of 55.24% and eFG_LastN of 51.41%. Those shooting numbers are respectable but closer to league average than dominant. On the other end, their DRtg_LastN of 113.37 and PointsAllowed_LastN of 114.13 show a defense that bends but does not completely break, roughly net-neutral overall. With 3PA_LastN at 31.88 and ThreePointRate_LastN at 34.79%, New Orleans relies on threes at a moderate rate, which keeps variance in check compared to the most perimeter-heavy teams.
Los Angeles Lakers
The Los Angeles Lakers have been blistering offensively in their recent sample. They feature an ORtg_LastN of 128.07 alongside a scorching TS_LastN of 66.26% and eFG_LastN of 61.86%, numbers that sit in elite territory. Their Pace_LastN of 98.54 is slightly below the Pelicans’ tempo but still in the upper-middle range, combining efficiency with enough possessions to generate big scoring totals. Defensively, the same DRtg_LastN of 128.07 and PointsAllowed_LastN of 126.2 indicate significant recent struggles on that side of the ball. The Lakers are taking and making threes at a high clip, with ThreePA_LastN of 33.4, ThreePM_LastN of 13.0, and a ThreePointRate_LastN of 40.73%, which further amplifies scoring swings.
Edge: From an efficiency standpoint, the Lakers’ recent offensive profile is dramatically stronger, driven by much higher TS% and eFG%. However, their porous defense and the Pelicans’ decent offensive baseline suggest New Orleans can score enough to avoid a total collapse. The pace gap slightly favors a more open game, but both teams’ recent defensive issues point more toward competitive scoring than a pure blowout script.
Rest & Travel Analysis
| Factor | New Orleans Pelicans | Los Angeles Lakers |
| Miles Traveled (L10) | 2,806 | 7,492 |
| Timezone Jumps | 1 | 5 |
| Travel Fatigue Index | 3.68 | 14.50 |
| Back-to-Back? | Yes (played 2025-11-29, then flew to West Coast) | No (last listed segment 2025-11-28 at home) |
Fatigue Edge: The Lakers have logged heavy recent travel, with a TravelFatigueIndex of 14.495 and 7,492 miles over their last 10 days, but they enter this matchup without a back-to-back. New Orleans has traveled less overall with 2,806 miles and a TravelFatigueIndex of 3.683, though they appear to be on the second night of a back-to-back after flying from San Francisco. Netting it out, the Pelicans’ B2B slightly hurts them, but the Lakers’ extensive cumulative travel and time-zone changes soften that disadvantage, creating only a modest rest edge for Los Angeles.
Lineup Synergy & Ref Tendencies
Synergy Score: New Orleans Pelicans: -7.55 | Los Angeles Lakers: 14.58
Synergy Edge: The Lakers hold a substantial synergy advantage, with their 14.58 score indicating well-functioning lineup combinations, while the Pelicans sit at a negative -7.55. This differential of roughly 22 points suggests Los Angeles lineups are meshing significantly better on both ends, particularly in orchestrating efficient offense.
Referee Edge: Home Ref Impact: 0.16 | Away Ref Impact: 0.14 | Net Edge: 0.02
The referee model shows only a slight lean toward the home side, with a ref_edge of 0.02, effectively neutral. There is no strong indication of a whistle pattern that would dramatically favor either attacking style or significantly shift the spread, so officiating is not expected to be a major factor in this matchup.
Why New Orleans Pelicans Covers
Taking the New Orleans Pelicans +15.5 is primarily a numbers and variance play against an inflated spread. While New Orleans is shorthanded, their recent ORtg of 113.37, TS of 55.24%, and moderate pace of 100.67 show a competent offense that should generate enough scoring chances to avoid a total blowout. The Lakers’ defensive form is a key factor: with a recent DRtg of 128.07 and 126.2 points allowed per game, Los Angeles has not consistently put teams away on that end. The Pelicans’ travel burden is lighter overall than the Lakers’, and the massive cushion of over two full possessions beyond typical blowout ranges creates room for garbage-time scoring. Even if the Lakers control the game, the combination of Los Angeles’ shaky defense and Pelicans’ adequate shooting profile favors New Orleans sneaking inside this very large number.
Why Los Angeles Lakers Covers
Backing the Los Angeles Lakers -15.5 relies on their dominant recent offensive profile and far superior synergy. With an elite ORtg of 128.07, TS of 66.26%, and eFG of 61.86%, the Lakers have been scoring at will, especially from beyond the arc where they attempt 33.4 threes per game and hit 13.0. Their positive synergy score of 14.58 compared to the Pelicans’ -7.55 underscores that their rotations are performing at a much higher level. New Orleans is not only undermanned with a TotalWUDropoff of -19.83, but also faces a challenging travel spot flying into Los Angeles after a game the previous night. If the Lakers’ defense can offer even a modest improvement against a thin Pelicans roster, their offensive firepower and home environment give them a realistic path to building and maintaining a 20-plus point margin.
The Pick
New Orleans Pelicans +15.5 (-110)
