Game Preview
The Minnesota Timberwolves welcome the Phoenix Suns in a Western Conference showdown that pits a surging home side against a shorthanded visitor. Minnesota has been piling up efficient offensive performances in recent games, while Phoenix is trying to stay afloat without one of its primary scorers. Both teams lean heavily on the three-point line, setting up a stylistic chess match on the perimeter. With playoff seeding implications already in focus, this matchup should offer a clear look at which roster construction and depth chart travels better.
Game Information
| Date | Monday, December 8, 2025 |
| Tip-Off | 7:30 PM EST |
| Location | Target Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota |
| Broadcast | Check local listings |
Injury Report
Minnesota Timberwolves Injuries
- Out: None reported
- Doubtful: None reported
- Questionable: None reported
Phoenix Suns Injuries
- Out: Devin Booker (usage and scoring absence), Isaiah Livers (depth forward)
- Doubtful: None reported
- Questionable: Dillon Brooks (moderate two-way impact)
Player Impact Summary: Minnesota is effectively at full strength, with no notable usage-weighted dropoff. Phoenix, by contrast, shows about a 6.2-point negative usage-weighted shift, driven mainly by the absence of Booker and uncertainty around Brooks. While the model tags Booker’s specific numeric impact as modest, his scoring gravity matters, and if Brooks cannot go, the Suns lose another wing defender and secondary creator, slightly widening Minnesota’s edge against the spread.
Pace & Efficiency Matchup
Phoenix Suns
The Phoenix Suns have been solid but unspectacular on offense in recent action. Over their last handful of games, they are posting roughly a 113.1 offensive rating, a tick above league average, while their 55.2% true shooting sits in the respectable but not elite range. Phoenix is leaning hard into the perimeter, averaging about 39.7 three-point attempts and 13.1 makes per game, with a three-point attempt rate in the low 40s as a percentage of their shots. Turnovers have been manageable at around 12.9 per game, but their defensive work has been closer to average, also hovering near a 113.1 defensive rating. That combination leaves their recent net efficiency roughly neutral.
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Minnesota Timberwolves enter this matchup with one of the sharper offensive profiles in the league over their recent stretch. They are producing about a 120.4 offensive rating, pairing that with an impressive 61.2% true shooting and a strong 57.4% effective field goal percentage. Minnesota plays at a slightly faster pace than Phoenix, close to 100.1 possessions per game in this sample, and they mirror the Suns’ perimeter emphasis with roughly 39.7 threes and 16.3 makes per night. Turnovers have been a bit higher at around 13.9, but their rebounding is solid on both ends, highlighted by a defensive rebounding rate north of 76.4%. Defensively, their recent rating also tracks near that 120.4 mark, suggesting shootout tendencies but with more offensive upside than Phoenix.
Edge: Both teams show roughly neutral net ratings in this sample, but Minnesota owns the more explosive offense, with a noticeably higher efficiency and slightly faster tempo. Phoenix’s numbers are more middling and reliant on jump shooting. When combined with Minnesota’s stronger rebounding and higher conversion rate from deep, the overall efficiency and pace profile tilts in favor of the Timberwolves, especially at home.
Rest & Travel Analysis
| Factor | Phoenix Suns | Minnesota Timberwolves |
| Miles Traveled (L10) | 6,560 | 6,054 |
| Timezone Jumps | 7 | 3 |
| Travel Fatigue Index | 11.94 | 9.63 |
| Back-to-Back? | No | No |
Fatigue Edge: Neither team is on a back-to-back, but the travel profile clearly favors Minnesota. The Suns have logged slightly more than 6,500 miles and a heavy seven timezone changes in their recent schedule, contributing to a higher travel fatigue index near 11.9. Minnesota has similar miles but only three timezone shifts and a lower fatigue index around 9.6. Over a long season, that difference can subtly sap legs and shooting comfort, giving the Timberwolves a modest rest and travel advantage on their home floor.
Lineup Synergy & Ref Tendencies
Synergy Score: Phoenix Suns: -4.61 | Minnesota Timberwolves: 3.56
Synergy Edge: The Timberwolves show a clearly positive synergy, indicating their main lineup combinations are outperforming expectations and meshing well. Phoenix sits in negative territory, suggesting that their current rotations, likely stressed by injuries, are underdelivering relative to talent. That differential points toward Minnesota being more reliable in sustaining runs and closing quarters.
Referee Edge: Home Ref Impact: 0.16 | Away Ref Impact: 0.14 | Net Edge: 0.02
The referee metrics show only a very slight lean toward the home side, with a minimal net edge of about 0.02. This suggests officiating is unlikely to swing the matchup significantly. Any bias should be subtle, perhaps offering Minnesota a small benefit in borderline whistle situations, but not enough on its own to drive a betting decision.
Why Phoenix Suns Covers
The case for the Phoenix Suns keeping this within the number starts with the spread itself. Getting nearly double digits provides a margin for error if their offense can sustain its recent 113.1 offensive rating. Phoenix is a high-volume perimeter team, taking close to 40 threes per game with a three-point attempt rate above 43.0%. In any single contest, that kind of shot profile can create volatility; a hot night from deep can compress the gap against a favored opponent. Turnovers have also been reasonably controlled at around 12.9 per game, which helps limit transition chances for Minnesota. Defensively, their numbers are mediocre, but if Dillon Brooks plays and contributes his usual defensive edge on the wing, Phoenix could throw enough looks at Minnesota’s primary scorers to keep this within two or three possessions late.
Why Minnesota Timberwolves Covers
The argument for the Minnesota Timberwolves covering a sizable spread is rooted in offensive firepower and cohesion. Minnesota’s recent 120.4 offensive rating paired with a 61.2% true shooting profile is elite, especially at home. They match Phoenix’s three-point volume but convert at a higher clip, hitting around 16.3 threes per game, which can quickly create separation. Their positive synergy score of 3.6 versus the Suns’ negative mark indicates lineups that complement each other and sustain momentum. On the glass, Minnesota’s defensive rebounding rate above 76.4% helps limit second chances for a Suns team missing Devin Booker and potentially Dillon Brooks. The travel and fatigue indicators also lean toward Minnesota, with fewer timezone jumps and a lower fatigue index, suggesting fresher legs. Combined, these factors support the Timberwolves’ ability to build and maintain a double-digit margin.
The Pick
Minnesota Timberwolves -9.5 (-110)
