NBA: Phoenix Suns vs New Orleans Pelicans (12/26/25)

Game Preview

Phoenix Suns and the New Orleans Pelicans meet in a late-December matchup that feels like it could hinge on energy and execution as much as star power. Phoenix has leaned into modern shot selection with heavy three-point volume in recent action, while New Orleans has played at a faster tempo that can turn the game into a track meet. With both teams surrendering plenty of points lately, this one sets up as a high-stakes test of who can get the cleaner looks late. The schedule spot also adds intrigue, with travel and recovery potentially shaping legs and jumpers.

Game Information

Date	Friday, December 26, 2025
Tip-Off	8:00 PM EST
Location	Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, Louisiana
Broadcast	Check local listings

Injury Report

New Orleans Pelicans Injuries

• Out: Herbert Jones
• Doubtful: None
• Questionable: Jordan Poole

Phoenix Suns Injuries

• Out: Grayson Allen
• Doubtful: None
• Questionable: None

Player Impact Summary: The injury-driven downgrade is relatively modest on both sides. New Orleans’ usage-weighted impact is listed around -4.2 with no critical injuries flagged, while Phoenix checks in around -4.7, also without a critical-absence tag. With New Orleans carrying a questionable tag and Phoenix missing a rotation shooter, the overall availability picture profiles as close to neutral against the spread.

Pace & Efficiency Matchup

Phoenix Suns

Phoenix has been efficient offensively lately, posting a 117.1 offensive rating in recent action with a strong 60.3% true shooting mark and 56.1% effective field goal shooting. Their pace has been slower at 98.4, and their profile is perimeter-driven: they’re taking about 35.3 threes per game with a hefty 41.1% three-point attempt rate, but they’ve also averaged 15.3 turnovers per game, which can fuel opponent transition.

New Orleans Pelicans

New Orleans has played faster, with a pace around 105.3 in recent games, and that tempo has helped them generate a big 119.5 offensive rating. Their scoring efficiency is solid with 58.4% true shooting and 53.8% effective field goal shooting, though their three-point volume is lower at roughly 29.8 attempts per game and a 31.0% three-point attempt rate. Defensively, they’ve been leaky lately, allowing about 125.8 points per game, making shot quality and transition defense critical in this matchup.

Edge: Phoenix brings the cleaner shooting efficiency and higher three-point reliance, while New Orleans brings the faster pace and slightly higher recent offensive output. The big swing factor is whether Phoenix’s slower rhythm can control possessions; if New Orleans successfully speeds it up, the game can become higher-variance with more transition possessions and more chances to stay within the number.

Rest & Travel Analysis

Factor	Phoenix Suns	New Orleans Pelicans
Miles Traveled (L10)	6,467	4,934
Timezone Jumps	6	3
Travel Fatigue Index	13.48	6.56
Back-to-Back?	No	No

Fatigue Edge: This is the clearest situational separator: Phoenix has logged 6,467 miles with 6 timezone changes recently, pairing with a travel fatigue index of 13.5, while New Orleans sits at 4,934 miles, 3 timezone changes, and a notably lower fatigue index of 6.6. Neither team is on a back-to-back, but the cumulative travel burden suggests Phoenix is more likely to feel it in late-game shooting legs and defensive rotations.

Lineup Synergy & Ref Tendencies

Synergy Score: Phoenix Suns: 6.42 | New Orleans Pelicans: 8.20

Synergy Edge: New Orleans owns the better recent lineup cohesion, indicating their rotations have produced more reliable two-way outcomes. In a spread spot where +5.5 matters, cleaner substitution patterns and fewer “dead” minutes can be a meaningful separator.

Referee Edge: Home Ref Impact: 0.13 | Away Ref Impact: 0.11 | Net Edge: 0.02

The officiating lean is minimal, with only a slight net edge toward the home side. It’s not strong enough to drive the handicap, but in a game projected to be competitive, a small tilt can still matter on a few marginal calls that impact free throws and momentum.

Why Phoenix Suns Covers

Phoenix can cover if their shooting profile dictates the terms. They’ve produced an efficient scoring baseline lately, supported by a 60.3% true shooting mark and a strong 56.1% effective field goal rate, and they’re comfortable living from deep with about 35.3 three-point attempts per game and a 41.1% three-point attempt rate. If the Suns take care of the ball better than their recent 15.3 turnovers per game, they can limit New Orleans’ transition chances and force the Pelicans to score in the half court. With New Orleans allowing about 125.8 points per game lately, Phoenix doesn’t need a perfect defensive night to create separation—just enough stops to pair with efficient perimeter scoring.

Why New Orleans Pelicans Covers

New Orleans is positioned to hang around because of pace pressure, rotation stability, and a real travel advantage. The Pelicans have played at a fast 105.3 pace recently and still posted a strong 119.5 offensive rating, which is the type of output that can keep an underdog inside a mid-sized number. Their lineup synergy edge (about 8.2 vs 6.4) suggests fewer extended lulls when the bench units check in. The situational angle is also significant: Phoenix’s travel fatigue index sits at 13.5 compared to New Orleans’ 6.6, with double the timezone disruption. If legs flatten late, Phoenix’s three-point-heavy approach can swing downward quickly, and that volatility is exactly what a +5.5 home dog wants.

The Pick

New Orleans Pelicans +5.5 (-110)