NFL: ATL vs LAR (12/29/25)

Game Preview

Week 17 closes with a prime-time clash as the Los Angeles Rams head into Atlanta to face the Atlanta Falcons. It’s a classic contrast in recent quarterback rhythm, with Matthew Stafford heating up late while Kirk Cousins has been more volatile over the last few weeks. Both teams bring playmakers that can flip a game quickly, and the controlled environment of Mercedes-Benz Stadium adds to the scoring intrigue. With the season winding down, the margins get thinner and every drive matters.

Game Information

Injury Report

Atlanta Falcons Injuries

• Out: Billy Bowman Jr., Malik Verdon, Bralen Trice, DeMarcco Hellams, Troy Andersen, Emory Jones, Michael Penix Jr., Zach Harrison, DeAngelo Malone, Tyrone Wheatley Jr., KhaDarel Hodge, Kaleb McGary, Mike Hughes, Storm Norton
• Questionable: Drake London, Clark Phillips III, Sam Roberts

Los Angeles Rams Injuries

• Out: Josh Wallace, Rob Havenstein, Kevin Dotson, Keir Thomas, Quentin Lake
• Questionable: Alaric Jackson, Braden Fiske, Tyler Higbee, Roger McCreary

Quarterback Matchup

Matthew Stafford (Los Angeles Rams)

Stafford comes in playing efficient, aggressive football. Over his last three games, he’s averaging 368.7 passing yards on 39.3 attempts with 2.67 passing TDs and only 0.33 INTs per game. The biggest separator is how productive each dropback has been: his 9.36 yards per attempt (L3) points to consistent chunk gains, not just volume. He’s also been protected well lately with only 0.67 sacks taken per game, letting the Rams stay on schedule and keep the full playbook open. If that efficiency holds, Los Angeles can pressure Atlanta into chasing points.

Kirk Cousins (Atlanta Falcons)

Cousins’ recent stretch has been more uneven. In his last three games, he’s averaging 244.0 passing yards on 36.3 attempts with 1.67 passing TDs and 1.0 INT per game. The efficiency gap shows up in his 6.50 yards per attempt, which often signals more difficult third downs and fewer explosive completions. While the sack rate is manageable at 1.0 sacks taken per game, the bigger issue is giveaways: his L3 1.33 turnovers per game can swing a spread quickly against a team that’s scoring at a high clip lately. Atlanta can win if it plays clean, but the floor has been lower.

Edge: The advantage tilts to Los Angeles Rams at quarterback right now, mainly due to Stafford’s elite recent efficiency (9.36 YPA) and lower turnover profile. Cousins can keep Atlanta competitive, but his L3 output has been less explosive and more mistake-prone, which matters when you’re trying to stay within a touchdown number.

Why Los Angeles Rams Covers

The cleanest path to a Rams cover is Stafford continuing to create explosive offense without giving the ball away. Los Angeles has been a high-scoring team recently, averaging 41.0 points over its last three games, and it’s also been reliable against the number with a 3-0 ATS mark in that span. The matchup also sets up for Los Angeles to lean on efficiency: Stafford’s L3 profile combines big-play production (9.36 YPA) with low negative plays (0.67 sacks per game and 0.33 turnovers), which is exactly how favorites turn games into two-score outcomes.

Atlanta’s injury list is also heavy, particularly in the secondary and along the offensive line, which can create two compounding problems: longer fields for the Falcons and more short fields for the Rams. If the Falcons are forced to throw more to keep pace, Cousins’ recent turnover rate (1.33 per game L3) becomes a real spread issue. In a dome, the Rams’ passing game can stay aggressive all four quarters.

Why Atlanta Falcons Covers

Atlanta’s best case to cover is keeping the game from turning into a shootout where every possession is magnified. If the Falcons can lean on their core playmakers and shorten the game with more controlled drives, a seven-point spread becomes very live, especially at home. There’s also a clear Rams risk: their injury situation along the offensive line is notable, with multiple key blockers listed Out and a starting tackle Questionable. If that protection slips even a little, the Rams’ offense can go from explosive to inconsistent quickly.

The other angle is market expectation. A line this large implies Los Angeles is significantly stronger, but Atlanta has been competitive in spots and can still generate points. If Drake London (listed Questionable) plays closer to full strength, it raises Atlanta’s ceiling and gives Cousins more margin for error. One or two red-zone stands or a timely takeaway can flip a -7 game into a one-possession finish.

The Pick

Los Angeles Rams -7 (-120)