Game Preview
A classic AFC North primetime clash hits M&T Bank Stadium as the Baltimore Ravens host the Cincinnati Bengals. With divisional positioning and playoff implications tightening, Lamar Jackson squares off against Joe Burrow in a rivalry that routinely delivers drama. Baltimore’s defense has been surging while Cincinnati arrives shorthanded at key spots. Expect a physical, field-position battle where every red-zone snap and third down carries outsized weight.
Game Information
| Date | Thursday, November 27, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 8:20 PM EST |
| Location | M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD |
| Surface | Grass |
| Roof | Outdoor |
| Weather | Overcast, 42°F (wind chill ~35°), winds ~12 mph |
Injury Report
Baltimore Ravens Injuries
- Out: Taven Bryan (Knee), Broderick Washington Jr. (Ankle), Nnamdi Madubuike (Neck), Ar’Darius Washington (Achilles), Tavius Robinson (Foot), Adisa Isaac (Elbow), Bilhal Kone (Knee), Jay Higgins IV (Knee), Dayton Wade (Undisclosed), Justice Hill (Neck), Robert Longerbeam (Undisclosed)
- Questionable: None listed
Cincinnati Bengals Injuries
- Out: Trey Hendrickson (Hip/pelvis), Tee Higgins (Concussion), Marco Wilson (Hamstring), Cordell Volson (Undisclosed), Cam Taylor-Britt (Foot), Jaxson Kirkland (Undisclosed), Erick All Jr. (Knee), Shaka Heyward (Fibula), Tahj Brooks (Concussion), Matt Lee (Knee), Shemar Stewart (Knee), Jermaine Burton (Ankle)
- Questionable: Cam Sample (Oblique)
Quarterback Matchup
Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals)
In a limited L3 sample (2 games), Burrow’s production has been muted: 5.38 YPA, 57.36% completion, and 2.5 sacks taken per game with minimal ground output (about 1.5 rushing yards). The ball security has been fine (no interceptions in the sample), but the overall efficiency and volume (roughly 18 attempts, 10.5 completions, and 94.5 passing yards) suggest a conservative, underneath approach. With Tee Higgins and Jermaine Burton sidelined, explosive perimeter options are thinned, increasing pressure on Ja’Marr Chase and the tight ends to win quickly against Baltimore’s disciplined coverage.
Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens)
Over his L3, Jackson has been steady if not spectacular through the air: 6.81 YPA, 57.05% completion, and 2.33 sacks per game, with modest rushing at 19 yards per outing. The passing TD/INT trend (about 0.33 TDs and 0.67 INTs per game) points to ball-control scripts rather than shootouts. Supported by Derrick Henry and a full tight end room (led by Mark Andrews), Baltimore has leaned into balanced, situationally aware football that emphasizes field position and red-zone execution over raw yardage totals.
Edge: Slight lean to Jackson given healthier weapons and scheme stability. Burrow’s small-sample L3 and missing receivers compress Cincinnati’s explosive upside, especially on a cold, breezy night.
Why Cincinnati Bengals Covers
Division familiarity and a +7 cushion can travel in the AFC North. Even with injuries, Cincinnati still has an elite alpha in Ja’Marr Chase, and Burrow’s decision-making (no interceptions in his recent L3 sample) can keep the game within one score. Baltimore’s defensive line is down several rotational pieces, which can subtly aid Cincinnati’s protection and run efficiency on early downs. The rivalry nature often compresses scoring margins, and the weather tilt (temps in the low 40s with 12-mph winds) favors shorter, clock-running drives that limit possessions. If the Bengals win third-and-medium with quick-game timing and get a couple of chunk plays via schemed shots to Chase or play-action to the tight ends, a backdoor or wire-to-wire cover at +7 is live.
Why Baltimore Ravens Covers
Baltimore’s defense is peaking by our recent proxies, posting a ~26.6% pressure rate in the latest window with no explosive plays allowed. Offensively, Derrick Henry plus layered tight end usage pairs well with chilly, breezy conditions to control pace and wear down a Bengals front missing Trey Hendrickson. Cincinnati’s secondary is also thin (Cam Taylor-Britt and Marco Wilson out), raising stress on coverage integrity versus Zay Flowers and DeAndre Hopkins. On the other side, the Bengals’ recent defensive pressure rate has dipped toward single digits, a stark contrast to Baltimore’s surge. With superior recent form (5–0 L5, allowing just 13.4 points per game in that span), the Ravens have multiple avenues—pass rush, ball control, and field position—to create separation and justify the full touchdown spread.
The Pick
Total — Under 51.5 (-105)
