NFL: CHI vs DET (01/04/26)

Game Preview

Week 18 in the NFC North rarely stays quiet, and Detroit heading to Chicago brings the usual mix of rivalry heat and late-season urgency. Jared Goff and Caleb Williams have both put up capable recent production, but this matchup is just as much about who can survive the injury report and play clean in the cold. Chicago’s recent form has been strong, while Detroit has been fighting uphill through December. With Soldier Field in winter mode, every drive and every turnover feels amplified.

Game Information

Injury Report

Chicago Bears Injuries

• Out: Deion Hankins, Zah Frazier, Shemar Turner, Qadir Ismail, Kiran Amegadjie, Terell Smith, Ricky Stromberg, Roschon Johnson, Noah Sewell, Dayo Odeyingbo, Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, Braxton Jones, Kyler Gordon
• Questionable: Ozzy Trapilo, Rome Odunze, Nick McCloud, Jaquan Brisker

Detroit Lions Injuries

• Out: Kerby Joseph, Josh Paschal, Brock Wright, Sam LaPorta, Trystan Colon, Alim McNeill, Levi Onwuzurike, Zach Cunningham, Alex Anzalone, Jamarco Jones, Ezekiel Turner, Brian Branch, Thomas Harper, Terrion Arnold, Ennis Rakestraw Jr., Dan Jackson, Kye Robichaux, Penei Sewell
• Questionable: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Taylor Decker, Kayode Awosika, Christian Mahogany

Quarterback Matchup

Jared Goff (Detroit Lions)

Goff’s last three games show he can still generate chunk production through the air: 299.7 passing yards per game on 7.26 yards per attempt with 2.33 passing TDs per game (see away_qb_stats.L3.passing_yards, away_qb_stats.L3.yards_per_attempt, away_qb_stats.L3.passing_tds). The efficiency is workable and the touchdown pace is strong, but the risk shows up in the disruption and giveaways: 3.0 sacks taken per game and 0.67 INTs per game, plus 1.67 turnovers per game across the window (see away_qb_stats.L3.sacks_taken, away_qb_stats.L3.passing_ints, away_qb_stats.L3.turnovers). In cold, outdoor Chicago, pressure and ball security become the entire story for a pocket passer.

Caleb Williams (Chicago Bears)

Williams has been steady and clean recently, and that matters in a divisional Week 18 spot. Over his last three games he’s averaging 274.0 passing yards with 7.95 yards per attempt, and he’s produced 2.0 passing TDs per game with 0.0 INTs (see home_qb_stats.L3.passing_yards, home_qb_stats.L3.yards_per_attempt, home_qb_stats.L3.passing_tds, home_qb_stats.L3.passing_ints). The completion rate is lower at 58.71% (see home_qb_stats.L3.completion_pct), but he’s avoided negative plays: only 1.0 sack taken per game (see home_qb_stats.L3.sacks_taken). He also adds a small scrambling element at 20.33 rushing yards per game (see home_qb_stats.L3.rushing_yards), which can rescue drives when protection breaks down.

Edge: Williams has the cleaner recent profile: better YPA and a 0 INT last-three sample, while taking fewer sacks (compare home_qb_stats.L3 to away_qb_stats.L3). Goff’s volume and TD rate are real, but the sack and turnover rates get more dangerous when Detroit’s protection and skill group are banged up.

Why Detroit Lions Covers

Detroit’s case starts with Goff’s ability to push yardage even when things aren’t perfect. Over the last three, he’s still at nearly 300 yards per game with 2.33 passing TDs per game (see away_qb_stats.L3.passing_yards and away_qb_stats.L3.passing_tds), which is the profile of an offense that can put 24-30 on the board quickly if the game script opens up. Chicago’s defense has shown volatility week-to-week in the provided rolling proxy metrics, including a very low week 17 current dvoaProxy of 26.96 (see home_def_stats.home_defense_stats.team.weeks.17.current.dvoaProxy), so there’s a path where Detroit finds efficient early throws and forces the Bears into a back-and-forth. The other angle is familiarity: recent head-to-head trends show Detroit has won 3 straight against Chicago (see team_matchup_trends[0].Wins). If Detroit gets a few explosive connections and steals a possession, the spread becomes live.

Why Chicago Bears Covers

Chicago’s edge is that they look like the healthier, cleaner team at the most important spots for a cold, outdoor divisional game. Williams has played mistake-free football lately with 0 INTs and 0 turnovers across his last three games (see home_qb_stats.L3.passing_ints and home_qb_stats.L3.turnovers), and he’s taking only 1.0 sack per game (see home_qb_stats.L3.sacks_taken). Meanwhile, Detroit is dealing with multiple major availability questions on offense, including Penei Sewell (Out) and Sam LaPorta (Out), plus Amon-Ra St. Brown (Questionable) and Taylor Decker (Questionable) (see away_team_injuries.injuries). That’s a lot to overcome against a defense that can still generate stops and shorten the game. Chicago’s recent results also point the right direction: 3-2 over the last five with a strong defensive scoring profile (see home_team_trends.TeamGameTrends[1]), while Detroit has gone 1-4 in its last five (see away_team_trends.TeamGameTrends[1]). Put it together and Chicago has more paths to a controlled win.

The Pick

Chicago Bears ML (-198)